Heaven or Earth?: The Evolving Role of Global Shocks for Domestic Monetary Policy (January 2026), joint with Kristin Forbes and M. Ayhan Kose, revise and resubmit at Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics.

• Available as NBER Working Paper #34806
• Also available as CEPR Discussion paper #21109
• Central banking (02/10/26)

 

Tradeoffs over Rate Cycles: Activity, Inflation and the Price Level (May 2025), joint with Kristin Forbes and Ayhan Kose. Paper prepared for the NBER’s 40^th Annual Conference on Macroeconomics, held in Cambridge, MA on April 10-11, 2025.

• Also available as NBER Working Paper # 33825 and CEPR Discussion Paper #20240
• Slides from NBER presentation (April 2025)
• Zip file with program and data to replicate dates and statistics for Rate Cycles, including a Read me document with information and graphs with the Rate Cycles for each economy
• Dates of resulting Rate Cycles (stata file)
• Summaries and links to related press: summary in Devdiscourse, summary in Central Banking, oped in Financial Times, summary in VoxEU

 

Capital Controls, Exchange Rate Arrangements, and the Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy: The Trilemma Strikes Back (December 2025), joint with H. Liu, and J. Rogers, presented at EC-CEPR-JIE conference (2025), revise and resubmit at Journal of Development Economics.

• Earlier version available as World Bank Policy Research Working Paper #10582

 

Rate Cycles (July 2024) with Kristin Forbes and M. Ayhan Kose. In Monetary Policy in an Era of Transformation, ECB Forum in Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal.

• • • Slides from conference presentation at the ECB Forum at Sintra (July 2024)

    • Also published as World Bank Policy Notes

    • Also published as CEPR Working Paper DP19272 (July 2024)

    • Related VoxEU blog, “Demand versus Supply: Drivers of the Post-Pandemic Inflation and Interest Rates” (Aug. 9, 2024)