Heaven or Earth?: The Evolving Role of Global Shocks for Domestic Monetary Policy (September 2025), joint with Kristin Forbes and M. Ayhan Kose, PRELIMINARY DRAFT, comments appreciated.

 

Tradeoffs over Rate Cycles: Activity, Inflation and the Price Level (May 2025), joint with Kristin Forbes and Ayhan Kose. Paper prepared for the NBER’s 40^th Annual Conference on Macroeconomics, held in Cambridge, MA on April 10-11, 2025.

• • Also available as NBER Working Paper # 33825 and CEPR Discussion Paper #20240

  • Slides from NBER presentation (April 2025)

  • Zip file with program and data to replicate dates and statistics for Rate Cycles, including a Read me document with information and graphs with the Rate Cycles for each economy

  • Dates of resulting Rate Cycles (stata file)

  • Summaries and links to related press: summary in Devdiscourse, summary in Central Banking, oped in Financial Times, summary in VoxEU

 

Rate Cycles (July 2024) with Kristin Forbes and M. Ayhan Kose. In Monetary Policy in an Era of Transformation, ECB Forum in Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal.

• • • Slides from conference presentation at the ECB Forum at Sintra (July 2024)

    • Also published as World Bank Policy Notes

    • Also published as CEPR Working Paper DP19272 (July 2024)

    • Related VoxEU blog, “Demand versus Supply: Drivers of the Post-Pandemic Inflation and Interest Rates” (Aug. 9, 2024)